Signal觉醒信号Oct 28, 20262026年10月28日Note短评

On-chain options' real moat was never the product.链上期权真正的护城河从来不是产品。

A bright sunlit turquoise-and-white fairground. On the right, a cheerful carnival ticket booth: several small faceless customers seen from behind eagerly push bright coins across the counter and carry away flimsy glowing lottery-style slips. Behind the booth a calm faceless operator stands beside a big transparent glass tank that is almost full of the coins the crowd handed over, lit by a warm-yellow spotlight, while the slips the crowd holds look nearly weightless. Bold white text reads: Retail pays the premium. A line of Chinese below reads: 散户付权利金，渠道收走.明亮阳光下的青绿与白色游乐场。右侧是一座欢快的售票亭：几个背对镜头、看不清脸的小顾客争着把亮闪闪的硬币推过柜台，拿走轻飘飘、发着光的彩票式票据。亭子后面站着一个看不清脸的操作员，旁边是一只透明大玻璃罐，几乎装满了人群交上来的硬币，被暖黄色聚光灯照亮；人群手里的票据却几乎没有分量。图上大字写着：Retail pays the premium，下面一行中文：散户付权利金，渠道收走。Image: WAKENEX图片：WAKENEX

It's distribution to retail. Retail buys short-dated, lottery-like convexity and systematically pays the premium, so whoever owns the funnel to those buyers collects it.

A TechFlow (深潮) analysis on October 28 put the bottleneck for the on-chain options "blue ocean" on retail distribution, not regulation or infrastructure. Take it to first principles: an option's premium is the price you pay for an expectation. More than 75% of the S&P options retail trades are 0DTE (same-day expiry); over a decade the 0DTE share rose from 5% to 62%; Robinhood's Q2 2026 options revenue alone was $342 million, above its stocks and crypto combined at $229 million. The pattern is clear: retail carries away thin convexity while the premium and the spread go to the sellers and the distributors. On-chain options are still only 6.9% of Deribit's volume; the "blue ocean" is blue not because the product is better, but because an under-harvested pool of premium-paying retail sits here, and on-chain it runs around the clock, without the broker's friction or guardrails.

What it means for you: when a venue's growth story is built on pulling in more retail order flow, the side being distributed to, you, is the priced risk itself. The real leverage is to stand where the options are written and the distribution is owned, or to treat convexity as insurance you sell rather than a lottery you buy.

This breaks if, before Q1 2027, an exchange or third-party data shows on-chain options retail flow is net-positive, or dominated by longer-dated hedging rather than 0DTE betting.

Research, not investment advice.

而是通向散户的分发渠道。散户买的是短久期、彩票式的凸性，并且系统性地支付权利金，所以谁掌握了通向这些买家的漏斗，谁就收走这笔钱。

深潮 TechFlow 10 月 28 日的一篇分析，把『链上期权蓝海』的瓶颈点在了散户分发，而不是监管或基础设施。把它拆到底：期权的权利金，就是你为一份『预期』付的价。美国散户交易的标普期权里，超过 75% 是 0DTE(当日到期)，十年里 0DTE 占比从 5% 涨到 62%；Robinhood 2026 年二季度光期权收入就有 3.42 亿美元，高于股票加加密货币合计的 2.29 亿美元。规律很清楚：散户买走的是薄薄的凸性，权利金和价差归卖方与渠道。链上期权现在只有 Deribit 成交量的 6.9%，所谓『蓝海』之所以蓝，不是因为产品更好，而是因为这里有一池还没被充分收割、愿意付权利金的散户，而且链上全天候交易，没有券商那层摩擦与保护。

对你的含义：当一个平台的增长故事建立在『把更多散户的下单流吸进来』时，被分发的那一端，也就是你，就是被定价的那份风险本身。真正的杠杆，是站在写期权、做分发的一侧，或者把凸性当成你卖出的保险、而不是你买入的彩票来下注。

如果某交易所或第三方数据在 2027 年一季度前显示，链上期权的散户资金是净赚的、或以较长久期的对冲为主而非 0DTE 博彩，那这个判断要修正。

研究，不构成投资建议。

Sources来源

Source: techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34916来源：techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34916techflowpost.com ↗

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