Systems Research系统研究Nov 4, 20262026年11月4日Note短评

Legal stock perps change the venue, not the leverage risk you carry.个股永续合约合法了，换的是场地，不是你承担的杠杆风险。

A bright, sunlit plaza where a suited official, seen only from behind, swings open a chrome turnstile to let one small figure board a towering, glossy candy-red amusement-park ride whose rails loop back on themselves with no exit station and no brake lever; where an exit door should be there is a solid blank wall, and a large round gauge on the lead car has its needle sinking toward empty. The official holds a huge blank ceremonial stamp.阳光明媚的广场上，一位只露背影的西装官员打开铬制旋转闸门，让一个小小的人登上一座高耸、锃亮的糖果红色游乐设施；它的轨道首尾相接、没有出口站台、也没有刹车杆，本该是出口的地方只有一堵空白的墙；头车上一只大圆压力表的指针正滑向空档。官员高举一枚巨大的空白公章。Image: WAKENEX图片：WAKENEX

On November 3, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said perpetual futures on individual US equities "can begin trading for the first time on CFTC-registered exchanges," as security futures products on venues dually registered with the CFTC and SEC. The pitch: these now sit "within the protections of the CFTC's proven regulatory framework," so Americans no longer need offshore, unregulated venues.

That changes who you trade with. It does not change what you are exposed to. A perpetual has no settlement date, so nothing ever forces the position to close. You hold leverage indefinitely, pay a funding rate the whole time, and the only scheduled event left is the exchange's liquidation engine firing when your margin runs out. The venue collects funding and liquidation fees and never sits on your side of the trade. The amplification lands on the one account that can be liquidated: yours.

Offshore perps stacked two risks: the counterparty might vanish, and the market might move against you. Regulation removes the first and leaves the second fully intact, now one tap away and onshore.

Notice what the release did not set: no leverage cap, no margin floor, no funding-rate rule. Those get written into each exchange's rulebook, which is where the risk to a retail account is actually decided.

This breaks if listed contracts ship with a hard leverage cap and position limits measurably tighter than offshore perps. Read the rulebooks, not the press release.

Research, not investment advice.

11 月 3 日，CFTC 主席 Michael Selig 表示，挂钩个股的永续期货“可以首次在 CFTC 注册的交易所开始交易”，作为证券期货产品，在同时向 CFTC 与 SEC 注册的交易所挂牌。官方说法是：这些产品如今处于“CFTC 成熟监管框架的保护之下”，于是美国人不必再去离岸的、不受监管的平台。

这改变的是你和谁交易，而不是你承担什么风险敞口。永续合约没有结算日，所以永远没有什么东西迫使这个头寸平仓。你可以无限期地持有杠杆，全程支付资金费率，而唯一还会按时发生的事件，就是当你的保证金耗尽时、交易所的强平引擎启动。平台收取资金费和强平费，永远不会站在你这一边。被放大的下行，落在那个唯一会被强平的账户上：你的账户。

离岸永续合约叠着两重风险：对手方可能消失，市场可能与你为敌。监管消除了第一重，却原样留下了第二重，如今它就在一键之遥、而且搬到了岸上。

注意这份公告没有设定什么：没有杠杆上限，没有保证金下限，没有资金费率规则。这些都要写进各家交易所的规则手册——而一个散户账户真正的风险，正是在那里被决定的。

这个判断会被推翻，如果挂牌的合约带着硬性的杠杆上限和仓位限制，并且明显比离岸永续合约更紧。去读规则手册，别看新闻稿。

研究，不构成投资建议。

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