Systems Research系统研究Oct 21, 20262026年10月21日Note短评

FERC just decided your power bill can keep subsidizing AI.FERC 刚刚决定：你的电费可以继续补贴 AI。

A satirical concept scene: a giant hand cranks an oversized valve on a glowing blue river of electric current, diverting the main flow into a huge data-center hall while a side-spout pours the costly overflow down onto a tiny house and its small silhouetted family. A tall gate of blue light glows behind.讽刺概念图：一只巨手转动一个超大阀门，阀门架在一条发光的蓝色电流之河上，把主流导入庞大的数据中心厅，同时侧口把昂贵的溢流直接倾泻到下方一栋小屋和屋里剪影般的一家人身上。身后立着一道蓝光之门。Image: WAKENEX图片：WAKENEX

Rules, not kilowatts, put the cost on millions of households.

What changed on Oct 9 — and who fought to stop it

OUR READ

Who pays for AI's electricity is a cost-allocation rule, not a law of physics. On Oct 9 FERC left that rule in place.

WHAT HAPPENED

FERC approved a PJM registry for data centers of 50 MW or more.
It rejected PJM's IRAS, which would have made new data centers bring or pay for their own capacity, or face curtailment.
FERC pointed to the states: retail electricity rates are their call, not Washington's.
Consumer advocates say data-center demand has already added about $29.4 billion in PJM capacity-auction costs borne by ratepayers.

WHY IT MATTERS

PJM socializes capacity and transmission costs across everyone. Strip out the one rule that would have made the biggest loads pay their own way, and the cost spreads to households by default. Who pays for AI's electricity is being decided in rate cases, not server rooms.

BEST CASE AGAINST US

A statewide, multi-year study found no clear link between data centers and retail prices; more load can spread fixed costs lower. That holds over years and whole states — not the local, near-term squeeze while the grid catches up.

DO THIS WEEK

If you're in PJM's multi-state footprint, check your utility's pending rate case and whether your state is opening a data-center rate class. This fight just moved to your statehouse.

We'd revise if FERC on rehearing, or states via new tariffs, reassign new-capacity costs to data centers before the next capacity auction.

Research, not investment advice.

规则、而非用电量，把成本压到了数百万家庭头上。

10 月 9 日改了什么，又是谁想拦下它

我们的判断

谁为 AI 的电买单，是一条成本分摊规则，不是物理定律。10 月 9 日，FERC 让这条规则原样留下。

发生了什么

FERC 批准了 PJM 对 50 兆瓦及以上数据中心的登记制度。
它否决了 PJM 的 IRAS 方案——该方案本会要求新建数据中心自带或自付新增容量，否则在紧张时段被削减。
FERC 把球踢给各州：零售电价归各州管，不归华盛顿。
消费者组织称，数据中心需求已在 PJM 容量拍卖中让用户多付约 294 亿美元。

为什么重要

PJM 把容量与输电成本摊到所有人头上。抽掉这条本可让最大负荷自付的规则，成本就默认扩散到普通家庭。谁为 AI 的电买单，是在电价听证里决定的，不是在机房里。

最强反方

有跨州、多年的研究发现数据中心与零售电价没有明显关联，更多负荷长期还能摊薄固定成本。但那是长期、全州口径——掩盖了电网追赶前本地、短期的挤压。

这周做一件事

如果你身处 PJM 的跨州范围，去查本地电力公司在审的电价案，以及你所在州是否在单列数据中心电价类别。这场仗刚刚挪到了你的州议会。

若 FERC 在复议中、或各州通过新费率，把新增容量成本在下一次容量拍卖前重新分配给数据中心，本判断需修正。

研究，不构成投资建议。

Sources来源

Primary source: ferc.gov/news-events/news原始来源：ferc.gov/news-events/newsferc.gov ↗

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