Deleting the expiry date doesn't change the leverage.删掉到期日,杠杆并没有变。

In early October, US regulators let exchanges strip expiry dates from index futures that already behaved like perpetuals. The headline reads "true perps arrive onshore." The better question is who pays when one blows up.
The record first. In Letter 26-29, dated 3 October, CFTC staff told Coinbase Derivatives, and any other regulated exchange, that they would not object if it removed expiration dates from its perpetual-style index futures. The relief runs out on 20 October. Conditions: at least five days' notice to holders, a chance to exit, risk disclosures, and no other material term changed.
The letter itself says these contracts had expiries of up to 25 years. Their funding mechanics were described as identical to true perpetuals. The date was a legal costume.
So the leverage engine was already running. Funding payments between longs and shorts keep the price near spot. Margin rules decide when a position is closed. Removing the date touches neither.
What matters is the loss waterfall. On 10 and 11 October 2025, about $19 billion of crypto positions were liquidated, CoinShares reported, adding that the official total is likely understated. When insurance funds ran dry, venues such as Hyperliquid auto-deleveraged, closing out profitable traders to cover the losses.
Regulated clearing works differently. Cleary Gottlieb notes that risk mutualization can expose participants to round-the-clock products they never trade.
A perpetual's risk lives in its margin rules, not on its calendar.
That is the second-order effect: as more perpetuals move into regulated clearing, part of their tail sits with people who never chose them.
The strongest counter is that labels steer distribution. The relief covers any exchange, and a recognized "perpetual" category is easier to list and sell through brokers. If the new label pulls in more leveraged retail flow, total leverage rises even if each position looks the same. Staff also warn the old contracts may price differently from true perps. So our read is narrower: per-position mechanics, and who absorbs the loss.
If a broker offers you one of these, read the margin and liquidation schedule before the product name. A small test: find the maintenance margin and the weekend rule, and write down what a sharp weekend gap would do to your account.
We'd revise if converted contracts show different funding, margin or basis behaviour than before, in exchange filings or data, by 31 December 2026.
Research, not investment advice.
美国监管在 10 月初允许交易所把一类“类永续”股指期货的到期日删掉。标题会写成“真永续登陆美国”;更值得问的是:一旦爆仓,谁来买单。
先看记录。CFTC 市场监督部 10 月 3 日签发的第 26-29 号函(10 月 5 日公布)表示,若 Coinbase Derivatives 以及任何其他受监管的指定合约市场删除现有类永续宽基股指期货的到期日,工作人员不会提出异议。这项豁免 10 月 20 日失效。条件包括:至少提前 5 天通知持仓者、给他们退出的机会、提供风险披露、不修改任何其他实质条款。
函件本身写明,这些合约原有的到期日最长达 25 年,资金费率机制被描述为与真正的永续合约相同。那个日期只是一件法律外衣。
所以杠杆的引擎早就在运转。多空之间定期支付的资金费率,让合约价格贴近现货;保证金规则决定一个仓位何时被平掉。删掉日期,这两样都没有动。
真正要看的是亏损瀑布。据 CoinShares 统计,2025 年 10 月 10 日至 11 日,约 190 亿美元的加密衍生品仓位被清算,该机构还说官方数字可能偏低。保险基金耗尽之后,Hyperliquid 等平台启用自动减仓,把盈利的交易者也强行平仓来填补亏损。
受监管的清算体系运作方式不同。Cleary Gottlieb 指出,风险共担可能让参与者承担他们从不交易的全天候产品的风险。
永续合约的风险在保证金规则里,不在日历上。
这就是二阶效应:越多永续合约进入受监管清算,它的尾部风险就有越大一部分落在从没选择它的人身上。
最强的反方是:标签会影响分销。豁免适用于任何交易所,一个被认可的“永续”类别更容易上市,也更容易经券商卖出。如果新标签吸引来更多带杠杆的散户资金,即使单个仓位看起来一样,系统里的总杠杆也会上升。监管人员也提醒,旧合约的定价可能偏离真正的永续合约。所以我们的判断收窄为:单个仓位的杠杆机制,以及亏损由谁承担。
如果券商向你推荐这类产品,先读保证金和强平规则,再看产品名。一个小检验:找到维持保证金和周末交易规则,写下一次周末大幅跳空会对你的账户造成什么影响。
如果到 2026 年 12 月 31 日,交易所文件或市场数据显示,转换后的合约在资金费率、保证金或基差上的表现与转换前明显不同,我们会修正这个判断。
研究,不构成投资建议。
Sources来源
- Primary source: cftc.gov/csl/26-29/download原始来源:cftc.gov/csl/26-29/downloadcftc.gov ↗
- Independent evidence: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9308-26独立证据:cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9308-26cftc.gov ↗
- Independent evidence: clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/the-market…独立证据:clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/the-market…clearygottlieb.com ↗
- Independent evidence: etp.coinshares.com/insights/knowledge/billions-in-liquidations-what…独立证据:etp.coinshares.com/insights/knowledge/billions-in-liquidations-what…etp.coinshares.com ↗
- Independent evidence: fow.com/insights/coinbase-hails-arrival-of-perpetual-style-futures-…独立证据:fow.com/insights/coinbase-hails-arrival-of-perpetual-style-futures-…fow.com ↗


